Remember the naysayers who warned us about the dangers of the post-Arafat Middle East? I know it's still early, but let's review some of the events since his death:
-Egypt releases Israeli Druze Azzam Azzam, after 8 years in prison
-Israel-Egypt ties are improving
-Hamas is openly discussing a hudna (ceasefire)
-No major terror attacks (knock on wood)
-Reports Syria willing to enter into peace talks
-Tel Aviv Stock Market soars (Maybe my Teva shares will return to the price I paid for them.)
Would any of this happened if Yasser was still alive in his Muqata compound in Ramallah? I don't think so.
On the other hand, all this good news creates a problem for Israel's right-wing. Without Arafat - and the wave of violence he did nothing to stop - the settlers will have a more difficult time pointing to the Palestinian leadership as the main impediment to peace. It's also more difficult to use security issues as an excuse to stay in Gaza and not implement Sharon's disengagement plan.
In some ways, a positive atmosphere between Israel and the Palestinians is the worst thing for the settlers' cause. No security threat means little reason to keep the settlements.
I'm not saying all is rosy or the situation won't change, just that there are positive trends at the moment - both for Israel and the Palestinians, but not necessarily for the settlers.
